Introduction: After entering August, the East China market for polyester bottle flakes fluctuated sideways, and the price of bottle flakes and water bottle materials hovered around 6,825 yuan/ton; compared with raw materials, the performance was relatively resilient.
Price change list of polyester bottle flakes and related products from August 2 to August 10
Datasource:LongzhongInformation
AsofthecloseoftradingonAugust10,intermsofinternationalcrudeoil,U.S.oilandBrentoilComparedwithAugust2,theyfellbyUS$2.97/tonandUS$226/ton,respectively,withadecreaseof3.10%and4.17%.ThespotpriceofPTA,themainrawmaterialforbottleflakes,inEastChinahasdroppedby200yuan/ton,or3.63%,comparedwithAugust2.Ascanbeseenfromthetableabove,thepriceofpolyesterbottleflakesintheEastChinamarkethasalsodroppedbyonly25yuanfromAugust2./ton,thedeclinewas0.36%;throughcomparison,undertheinfluenceofcrudeoil,thedeclineinPTAspotpriceswasbasicallyconsistentwiththatofcrudeoil.Thepriceperformanceofpolyesterbottleflakeshasbeenrelativelyresilient.Solet’stakealookatwhybottletabletpricesaresostrong?
Figure1Dailystart-uptrendchartofpolyesterbottleflakes
Data source: Longzhong Information
First of all, the start-up of the polyester bottle flake industry has dropped to a low level. Since the beginning of July, Guangdong Taibao’s 400,000-ton unit has been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time has not been determined; Xiamen Tenglong’s load has been reduced to 80%, and it has now returned to 90%; Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 150,000-ton small line has been converted to optical chips; Zhuhai China Resources’ load It has been reduced to 80% operation; Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 100,000-ton unit has been shut down for maintenance and plans to restart in September; Jiangsu Baosheng’s 150,000-ton unit has been shut down for maintenance; Chongqing Wankai’s 600,000-ton unit has been reduced to 80%; Zhejiang Wankai’s 1.2 million-ton unit has been maintained overall It is around 70%; the 2 million tons device in Jiangsu Sanfangxiang is operational at around 80%; as of August 10, the polyester bottle flake industry is operational at 69.24%. It is currently the peak season for soft drink production, and some factories have been affected by the epidemic and have seen a reduction in shipments. Most factories are shipping normally and inventories remain at moderately low levels. The industry’s operating capacity has slowed down, and there is no inventory pressure, so factories are holding up prices.
Figure 2 Profit and cost comparison chart of polyester bottle flakes
Source: Longzhong Information
Secondly, the purpose of reducing the burden on bottle flake factories is to maintain prices and repair poor processing. As of August 10, the price of polyester bottle flakes in the East China market is estimated at 6,825 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for bottle flakes is 467 yuan/ton, which is far lower than the industry’s basic breakeven line of 650-700 yuan/ton. As can be seen from Figure 2, the profits of bottle chips have continued to suffer losses since the beginning of June, and the loss space has gradually expanded. When the industry’s operating capacity dropped below 70%, the profit and loss space for bottle flakes narrowed slightly. Therefore, the editor believes that there is little room for continued compression of profit losses and processing fees for bottle flakes.
Finally, since August 2, after international crude oil fell sharply, major terminal soft drink manufacturers have successively replenished their stocks at low prices. The bottle flake factory had a lack of new orders in the early stage, but recently there has been a significant increase in new orders, and the pressure to receive orders has eased slightly.
The comprehensive performance of the above three aspects supports the market price of polyester bottle flakes to fluctuate within a narrow range. Regarding the market trend in the later period, on the one hand, we will pay attention to the shipment dynamics of the bottle flake factory, and on the other hand, we will pay attention to the production reduction of the polyester factory and the pressure caused by the restart of the TA device. </p
