Recently, the PTA market price has been at a high level and has been adjusted repeatedly. Fluctuations in crude oil prices have limited the room for PTA price increases. However, the restart of Yisheng’s new material equipment has not been smooth, resulting in tight supply in some areas. Therefore, under the game of cost and supply and demand, PTA prices are relatively stagnant. However, recently, news of polyester production cuts have continued to spread, and the market is worried about weakening demand, and PTA is facing a decline.
First of all, on the cost side, crude oil has been strengthened due to the Delta mutant strain, and control measures have been strengthened. The demand outlook continues to be under pressure, and international oil prices have fallen. However, EIA commercial crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories both declined. Coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, international oil prices turned from falling to rising. At the same time, due to the support of its own good supply and demand, the cracking price difference of naphtha is around 150 US dollars / ton. Due to the influence of crude oil quotas of large enterprises, the short-term supply and demand of raw material PX is only within a narrow range, so the PX-N price difference is at 280 US dollars / ton. Tons up and down. Therefore, although crude oil prices are slightly weaker, support still exists.
Secondly, on the supply side, the start-up of PTA companies is slightly low. The company that parked multiple units in the early stage has no recovery plan, but there are recent market rumors that Jiangyin Hanbang PTA equipment will be restarted in the later stage. It is understood that the company’s intended investors are still in the intention stage and have not yet been determined. The earliest recovery time is expected to be in November. Therefore, in the absence of clear information, the impact of this device on the PTA market supply will be limited in the short term. At present, Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton device has gradually stabilized production, Yisheng New Materials has not yet restarted smoothly, and the restart time of Xinjiang Zhongtai has not yet been fully determined. Sanfangxiang Line 2 is scheduled to restart near this weekend, and Line 1 is expected to restart in August. The recovery near the end of the month and the load of Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons unit may be gradually increased before the end of the month. There is no obvious maintenance plan for the other units. Taken together, it is expected that the average load of PTA in August will be about 75%, and the output will be about 4.41 million tons.
Finally on the demand side, news of polyester factory production cuts continues to ferment recently. According to Longzhong’s understanding, Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi, and Tiansheng all plan to reduce production by around 20% in the middle of the month. The total production reduction scale is about 4 million tons. The recovery time is to be determined. The current production reduction varieties are mainly those with high losses and high inventories. Mainly, other domestic companies with relatively high inventories are expected to also have plans to reduce production. Taken together, polyester’s demand for PTA is expected to weaken after mid-August. We estimate polyester production in August to be around 4.87 million tons.
From the perspective of supply and demand, due to poor terminal demand for polyester and increasing inventory , and cash flow is at a low level, polyester factories have successively announced production cuts, and the demand side has cooled. However, because PTA’s new equipment has not restarted as planned, the supply side has also declined. Therefore, we estimate that PTA will still focus on destocking in August, but the destocking range will drop to around 130,000 tons.
Overall, due to the release of news about polyester production cuts in the short cycle, the stage There may be a mismatch between supply and demand, but as the equipment of major PTA manufacturers has not yet stabilized, the contract maintains reduced supply. In addition, crude oil has stopped falling and has been boosted. Under the long-short game, the PTA market is expected to be dominated by stalemate consolidation.
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