In early August, Xinjiang cotton began to set bolls. Although the cotton was disturbed by weather in the early stage of growth, field management measures were strengthened in the later period. The cotton grew well and the bottom peach More. There is still more than a month until the new flowers are picked and put on the market, and the market has begun to focus on production data.
According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, the country’s total new cotton output in 2021 was 5.578 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and Xinjiang’s output was 5.017 million tons, a year-on-year decrease. 4.5%. The author believes that if the temperature in the future period is suitable for cotton to form bolls and wadding, cotton production may increase. Therefore, even if the total production decreases according to the previous forecast, it will not have much impact on cotton fundamentals. After all, the production reduction ratio is very low.
From the perspective of supply data, the absolute quantity of cotton can fully meet the market demand. The reason for the shortage of resources is mainly that the price of Zheng cotton has continued to rise for a period of time, which is quite Some resources are locked in futures and cannot circulate normally. This is one of the reasons why reserve cotton continues to maintain a high transaction rate.
The most important thing is to pay attention to the future consumption, which is the most important factor affecting the current trend of cotton prices. Otherwise, if we let the front-end hype, we will end up with a castle in the air. Ground chicken feathers. Consumption is crucial to support cotton prices. The rise of this market is closely related to the recovery of downstream consumption. Cotton spinning companies are not only profitable, but also have sufficient orders, which provides sufficient support for the rise in cotton prices. Therefore, as long as consumption can continue, cotton prices are still easy to rise but difficult to fall. At present, the transmission resistance of cotton yarn to gray fabric prices is relatively large. If the cotton price in the early period can remain high or even continue to rise, the transmission from gray fabrics to the back end will also become smoother.
Judging from the current situation, there is already a strong atmosphere of speculation on the purchase price of seed cotton in the early stage of the market. Judging from some questionnaires, cotton farmers, cotton enterprises, and traders are all optimistic about this year’s purchase price. There are high expectations for the opening price of cotton, especially since the number of cotton processing lines has increased this year, which has intensified the competition for seed cotton acquisition. Self-owned ginners may be able to remain calm and cautious in the face of high-priced seed cotton, but companies that contract ginneries can only increase prices to grab harvests, and there are not a few such companies. According to the rules of previous years, new cotton purchases have opened high and gone low. Whether this year will continue the rules of previous years or find another way deserves attention.
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