Trend chart of direct spinning staple fiber production capacity and output changes in the past 10 years
After experiencing overcapacity reduction and product structure optimization and adjustment from 2014 to 2017 , the direct-spun staple fiber market once again ushered in a new capacity expansion peak in 2018, but the reason for the expansion in 2018-2019 was based on the squeeze on the market share of recycled staple fiber. However, due to the re-expansion of production capacity, the staple fiber market has already In 2019, it has shifted from a balanced state to a slight surplus. Well, in 2020, the epidemic did not have a major impact on the short fiber market. On the contrary, due to the involvement of some anti-epidemic products and the low-cost advantage brought by low oil prices, the consumption of the short fiber market increased, but the contradiction of oversupply It must always be fed back to the market. Due to the market’s overestimation of demand in 2021 last year, the short fiber market was overdrafted at the beginning of this year, while the improvement in downstream demand has not been realized. Foreign trade orders continue to be affected by the epidemic, rising sea freight and insufficient containers. Problems continue to plague the market. Internal circulation alone puts great pressure on the entire textile chain.
Comparison of price difference between original and recycled staple fiber
With the rise in oil and raw material prices this year, the absolute price of short fiber is also higher than last year The price has risen sharply over the same period, and the price difference with recycled short fiber has been getting closer. Since March this year, the price difference between the two has remained above 1,000 yuan for a long time, which has also caused a squeeze on the market share of virgin short fiber. And due to the good market demand for cotton and cotton yarn, some pure polyester yarn companies have increased the proportion of polyester-cotton yarn production. Therefore, under the circumstances of one and the other, they jointly contribute to the current pressure on direct-spun staple fibers.
As for the market outlook, can the polyester staple fiber market rebound? When can we expect a comeback?
At present, the slow destocking of the short fiber market still restricts the market, although the 250,000 tons/year device in West China plans to reduce production next week (restarts and new production capacity are mostly hollow ), the actual supply of cotton staple fiber has shrunk significantly; however, downstream yarn companies continue to suffer from insufficient production due to lack of work, and orders from terminal weaving companies are average, printing and dyeing operations even tend to decline, and foreign trade orders are also limited. The peak season has not yet arrived, and terminal demand is still facing greater pressure.
Recent PF warehouse receipt quantity statistics
In addition, the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly recently. Judging from the current situation, the delivery pressure in September is biased. Large, it also poses a certain drag on the spot market. The current industrial customers are mostly short-selling logic, which also affects the 09 contract. However, after the recent rapid decline in futures prices, and the continuous shipments last week and this week, the external supply of goods has been significantly reduced. Although there are still 60,000-70,000 tons of physical inventory in external warehouses, the overall supply of goods available for sale is not much, and the interests of middlemen Inventories fell significantly. From the perspective of factories, the inventory pressure of brands with better liquidity is not great. In addition, the enterprises themselves are under great pressure to lose money. Therefore, there is not much room for the absolute price of the short fiber market to continue to fall further.
Then when will the short fiber market turn around? This will probably have to wait for the recovery of terminal demand. At present, there are too many goods hoarded in various downstream links. Although the processing gap of yarn mills is better in the short term, the inventory of terminal textile and garment links is slowly digested, and the market has not yet seen signs of the peak season.
Taken together, judging from the pressure that terminal weakness and polyester factory production cuts may bring to raw materials, there is still a certain probability of a decline in the short fiber market. However, considering the current processing fees The space is very weak, companies are generally under heavy pressure to lose money, and the recent decline in prices has attracted some buyers to stock up on bargains. After nearly two weeks of concentrated shipments, the supply of goods available for sale in external warehouses has been significantly reduced, and the decline in the equity inventory of middlemen will also have an impact on the market. The market constitutes certain positive factors, so the room for the absolute price decline of short fiber is expected to be limited, but the upward turning point still needs to wait for the transformation of the contradiction between supply and demand. </p
