Introduction: The PTA market price has recently weakened and adjusted. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline inventories increased for the first time in more than a month. Concerns about the epidemic dragging down fuel demand remain, and international oil prices have fallen for the fifth consecutive time. The decline in oil prices has dragged down PTA prices. In addition, the load of Yisheng’s new material installation may gradually increase, which will alleviate the tight supply situation in some areas. The combined shortage of terminal orders has led to a reduction in polyester production and burden. Therefore, under the dual pressure of cost and supply and demand, the current price of PTA has declined.
PTA market price trend
Source: Longzhong Information
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have fallen more than expected recently, but gasoline inventories have increased for the first time in more than a month due to the epidemic. Concerns about dragging down fuel demand remain, and international oil prices continue to fall. Cost support is weak. In terms of supply and demand, PTA supply and demand weakened. PTA equipment mainly restarted during the week, and supply increased slightly. The fermentation of negative feedback effects in the terminal market has caused major polyester manufacturers to reduce production one after another. The load of polyester has dropped significantly, and the load of Yisheng’s new material equipment has gradually increased. The tight spot liquidity situation in some areas has gradually eased. Taken together, macroeconomic conditions and weak supply and demand have caused PTA prices to decline.
PTA supply and demand balance sheet
Source: Longzhong Information
Since 2021, the destocking of PTA supply and demand has been quite obvious. Since March, the overall load of downstream polyester has remained at 90 More than % of the construction started, and PTA manufacturers began to contract supply reduction in March. Due to PTA production losses and large PTA maintenance volume, PTA supply continued to weaken in July and August, so PTA supply and demand continued to destock in the first half of the year. However, in the second half of the year, as the 3.6 million-ton unit of Yisheng New Materials was successfully put into operation, the PTA supply tension gradually eased. As the end of August approached, the expectations of the Gold Nine and Silver Ten that the market was generally concerned about did not come as expected. What replaced it was weak terminal orders. According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of August 19, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 68.66%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.18%. The main reason is that the inventory of gray fabrics is high and the number of new orders at home and abroad is scarce. Under the dual pressure, downstream users lack confidence in the peak season of the Gold, Nine and Silver Tens, and the industry atmosphere once declined. This directly leads to the reduction of downstream polyester production and burden reduction. Therefore, starting from September, the PTA supply and demand pattern has changed from a destocking to an accumulation expectation, and both supply and demand have suppressed the market conditions.
PTA market outlook risk judgment:
1. Although U.S. commercial crude oil Inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline inventories increased for the first time in more than a month. Concerns about the epidemic dragging down fuel demand remain. International oil prices continue to fall, dragging down chemical product costs and mentality.
2. The mid- to long-term PTA social inventory is expected to accumulate.
3. The inventories of polyester manufacturers have increased, and manufacturers have expanded their efforts to reduce production and reduce burdens.
4. During the Golden Nine and Silver Ten years, the downstream terminal demand market transmission is not smooth.
Based on the current domestic PTA upstream and downstream market conditions, there is a trend of restarting on the short-term supply side, and the polyester load on the demand side may have further downward risks, so Supply and demand are both negative for the PTA market. Therefore, in the absence of good news to boost the market, the PTA market may continue to weaken and fluctuate. </p
