After PTA fell below the 5,000 yuan mark at the beginning of the week, it reached its lowest level near 4,850. It rebounded from today’s low, closing at 4,932 yuan, down 0.72%. PTA supply is loose, downstream factories have few replenishments, market transactions are light, basis continues to be weak, and negative factors have temporarily prevailed.
In terms of costs, Hurricane Ida recently hit the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, causing a short-term contraction in supply. However, after it made landfall, it gradually weakened and was downgraded to a tropical storm. The increase in international oil prices was not strong. At the same time, the market paid attention to the OPEC September meeting. Changes to the production reduction plan. The supply of direct upstream raw material PX is still relatively tight, and the price is relatively stable. The current PX cracking spread has been maintained at around US$250/ton. As long as crude oil has not changed significantly, PX’s short-term cost support for PTA is acceptable.
Considering that PTA processing fees have shown obvious signs of correction, from 861 yuan/ton in early August to 466 yuan/ton at the end of August, if the cost side of crude oil and PX is still strong , if the PTA spot price does not rise enough, the cost-side support effect will gradually appear.
The weakening supply and demand situation is an important factor suppressing the recent performance of PTA. In terms of supply, starting from August, although the overall destocking pattern was still in place during the month, with the gradual restart of new materials, Sanfangxiang, and Honggang petrochemical plants in late August, the PTA supply and demand accumulation pattern is gradually emerging in September.
On the demand side, although the peak season of the Gold, Nine and Silver Tens is approaching, it seems that what the market is ushering in is not the high sentiment of rising orders and product prices during the peak season. Instead, it can only be described as light and calm. The downstream terminal textile market as a whole is in a relatively sluggish stage. The downstream centralized procurement of raw materials and preparations for stocking can only reveal a glimmer of hope from the frequent promotions of polyester and the reduction of production and burden.
Longzhong Information concluded that terminal demand has not improved, dragged down by inventory and losses, and polyester factories have concentrated on reducing production; currently, PTA has ample spot, polyester factories have sporadic replenishment, and market trading is still light. Poorly weak. </p
