In 2016, the domestic PTA production capacity reached 46.005 million tons, while the domestic downstream polyester production capacity was about 48.15 million tons. Based on the average operating rate of 77.2%, the annual polyester output was about 37.22 million tons. Theoretically, excluding the long-term suspension of production After PTA production capacity is reached, the actual supply and demand according to the theoretical data of domestic PTA production capacity in 2016 can basically be balanced.
In 2016, the domestic PTA production capacity reached 46.005 million tons, while the domestic downstream polyester production capacity was about 48.15 million tons. Based on the average operating rate of 77.2%, the annual polyester output was about 37.22 million tons. Theoretically, based on one ton demand Calculated by consuming 0.86 tons of PTA, 32 million tons of PTA will be consumed during the year. After excluding the long-term discontinued PTA production capacity, the actual supply and demand of domestic PTA production capacity theoretical data in 2016 can basically be balanced.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang (formerly Treasure Island Information)
A comparison of domestic PTA and downstream polyester production capacity from 2010 to 2016 shows that with the concentrated expansion of domestic PTA production capacity, the expansion rate of PTA production has been significantly higher than the expansion rate of downstream polyester production capacity since 2012. Among them, in 2014 Domestic PTA production expanded by 11.5 million tons/year, while downstream polyester only increased by 4.14 million tons/year. In 2015, excluding the 3.2 million tons of Far East Petrochemical, which had declared bankruptcy, the current total domestic PTA production capacity totaled about 43.805 million tons, while in 2016 , the domestic PTA production capacity has only increased by 2.2 million tons/year, and according to Jinlianchuang statistics, the domestic downstream polyester production capacity so far is about 48.15 million tons, and based on the average operating rate of 77.2%, the annual output is about 37.22 million tons. Theoretically, based on the calculation that one ton consumes 0.86 tons of PTA (3722*0.86=3200), 32 million tons of PTA will be consumed during the year. However, based on the analysis of the current situation of PTA production capacity, there are currently nearly 8.45 million tons/year of domestic devices in long-term Parking status, so the actual effective domestic PTA production capacity is about 37.555 million tons. It can also be seen that the actual supply and demand of the domestic PTA production capacity theoretical data in 2016 can basically be balanced.
Analysis of supply situation
Data source: Jin Lianchuang (formerly Treasure Island Information)
In 2016, my country’s total PTA supply was 32.5343 million tons, an increase of 777,100 tons or 2.45% compared with the same period last year; the average operating rate was 66.89%, with little fluctuation compared with the same period last year. Among them, Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons/year new equipment was put into operation at the end of the first quarter. In addition, there were fewer production cuts and shutdowns of main plant equipment this year, and the overall supply level was sufficient. However, due to the low processing fee level, some small equipment still faces cost suppression. , mainly low-load production or shutdown.
Analysis from demand situation
Data source: Jin Lianchuang (formerly Treasure Island Information)
In 2016, only 2.2 million tons of new PTA production capacity was put into production in the domestic PTA industry. As of the end of the year, the effective production capacity of the domestic PTA industry reached approximately 46.005 million tons, while the domestic downstream polyester production capacity was approximately 47.85 million tons. According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculations, the apparent consumption of the PTA industry this year is around 31.8388 million tons, and the average annual operating load has dropped to 66.89%. From an apparent numerical perspective, supply and demand in the PTA industry are relatively balanced this year.
In recent years, the pace of overcapacity reduction in the PTA industry has accelerated significantly. Since 2015, Far East Petrochemical declared bankruptcy in March, involving 3.2 million tons of production capacity withdrawing from the market. In April, the Tenglong Aromatics PX device unexpectedly exploded. Xianglu Petrochemical’s 4.5 million tons of production capacity was put into long-term shutdown for reorganization. Another 1.65 million tons of old equipment was shut down very early. In addition, other PTA production companies have been suspended for a long time (more than 6 months). ) high-cost small devices, the total production capacity of this part reaches about 15 million tons. After deducting this part of the production capacity, judging from the apparent demand, the PTA industry has been in a state of equilibrium between supply and demand. It is characterized as a phased balance because although the current peak of production capacity expansion in the PTA industry has ended, new production capacity will still be released in the later period. For example, in the first half of 2017, Xianglu Petrochemical and Far East Petrochemical intend to restart part of their production capacity, and Pengwei Petrochemical’s 900,000-ton unit is rumored to restart, which will put significant pressure on the supply of the PTA market.
At present, the PTA market has entered the stage of competition between low-cost production capacity and high-cost production capacity. Affected by factors such as debt relationships, contribution to local government output and tax revenue, the complete withdrawal of high-cost production capacity from the market will be a complex and lengthy process.
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