To sum up, the recent plummeting days of PTA are very special. Every time it makes a sharp adjustment after a new high, it is always chosen on some important or fashionable festivals. It turns out that there is an inside story to PTA’s plummeting, so let’s take stock with the editor.
Double Eleven in 2016, PTA rose from the daily limit to the lower limit
“Double Eleven” has transformed from Singles’ Day into a shopping carnival for e-commerce platforms, but Double Eleven in 2016 was still a diving day for the bulk commodity market. In the lively atmosphere of buying and selling, a tragic discount occurred in the futures market, and the rising momentum of bulk commodities in the early stage was broken. Almost all varieties turned green and plunged. Cotton even quickly plunged from the upper limit to the lower limit, and PTA also Without exception, commodities plummeted to their lowest limit. As of November 12, the main PTA contract 1705 closed at 4774 yuan, down 288 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price.
On Valentine’s Day in 2017, PTA surged higher but fell
After entering 2017, the rise in the PTA market has continued. Part of the main reason comes from the accident in the early stage of PX equipment. The tight supply has caused the price of raw material PX to rise. The cost side has given strong support to the PTA market. After the Spring Festival, the PTA market rose. The situation has not changed, with the main contract 1705 rising sharply to the 5912 yuan point. However, this round of rising prices ended on the “Valentine’s Day” night trading. As of February 15, the lowest price of the main contract 1705 was at 5704 yuan. From then on, PTA The market began to fluctuate and weaken, and his lover MEG fell by the limit that day. The market weakness is obvious.
On Women’s Day in 2017, the PTA market suffered three consecutive sales
Since the beginning of March, the PTA market has continued to fluctuate, and expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have continued to increase. Commodities fell collectively on the 8th, and the PTA futures market fell sharply. The intraday futures fell below the first-line support of 5,400 yuan, while commodities continued to plummet in the night session. , PTA futures prices fell below the first-line support of 5,300 yuan, and crude oil closed plummeting 5%. On the 9th, PTA opened quickly and fell to the limit. After opening, it fell to the limit again in the afternoon. As of March 9, the lowest price of the main contract 1705 was 5214 yuan.
Generally speaking, expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have increased, which will definitely have an impact on the global market. However, the crude oil market is slightly pessimistic, and cost-side expectations have weakened. From the supply and demand side, PTA supply remains loose, polyester factory inventories accumulate, and downstream Demand may be dragged down, fundamentals are running weakly, and bulk commodities have collectively fallen sharply, which is negative for the PTA market to a certain extent. The PTA spot market may continue to be weak in the short term.
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