Recently, the state reserve cotton output has been cooling down, causing a series of market fluctuations. What is the situation of the cotton market and cotton yarn market? How will it evolve next? The editor of China Yarn Network has compiled relevant information as follows:
The cotton supply from the State Reserve continues to cool down
On March 13, 32,069.999 tons of cotton reserves were rolled out, and the total transaction volume was 27,153.326 tons. The transaction ratio was 84.67%. The average transaction price was 14,905 yuan/ton (an increase of 46 yuan/ton from the previous day’s price).
First, the transaction ratio. For three consecutive days from March 6 to 7, the transaction rate was 100%. In the past three days, the transaction rate has gradually declined, hitting a new low since the round of reserve on March 13.
Second, the average transaction price continued to fall. On March 13, the average transaction price was only 14,905 yuan/ton, which was 571 yuan/ton lower than the 15,476 yuan/ton on the first day of storage rotation on March 6.
After 6 working days of storage, one of the outstanding features is “hot in the front and cool in the back”. As of March 14, the transaction rate of reserve cotton rotation dropped to 76.10%, and the average transaction price was 14,848 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume and price of reserve cotton “double dropped”, triggering market fluctuations.
Zheng cotton futures prices continue to fall
Recently, the trading volume of Zheng cotton futures has decreased and the price has declined. On March 13, the main 1705 contract closed at 15,485 yuan/ton, and the recent cumulative decline has been around 500 yuan/ton.
On March 15, ICE cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday, and the Zheng cotton CF1705 contract rebounded overnight. It fluctuated sideways in early trading today, and positions were reduced at high levels during the session. In the afternoon, it closed lower under the pressure of short selling and increased positions, and the daily line formed a 1/2 upper shadow line. Yinxian. Intraday trading volume shrank and positions decreased.
Cotton spot volume fell at reduced prices
The market in the Yangtze River Basin has been highly volatile recently. As of March 15, the price of grade 3128 cotton produced in Jiangsu, Hubei and other places was 15,700-15,800 yuan/ton (delivery, gross weight settlement), down nearly 200 yuan/ton from last Thursday (March 9). At present, only a few 400-type ginners in the Yangtze River Basin still have large bales of lint cotton in hand. Affected by the decline in the average price of cotton reserves, the ginners’ destocking mentality has increased.
Cotton prices in Xinjiang have also fallen recently. On March 15, the ex-factory price of “Double 29” and “Double 30” hand-picked Xinjiang cotton from a cotton merchant in Hubei was 16,500-16,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 3128-grade machine-picked cotton was 16,100 yuan/ton (picking, gross weight), both higher than this week It fell to the first line of 100 yuan/ton. According to analysis, the cost of truck transportation to Xinjiang has fallen recently. The current cost of truck transportation from Aksu to Hubei is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of March. On the other hand, the prices of Zheng cotton and reserve cotton have both dropped, giving High-quality Xinjiang cotton has also brought shipping pressure, and some cotton merchants are eager to destock.
The increase in cotton and yarn prices has been completely transmitted to the end of the industrial chain
According to reports, after the Spring Festival, prices in the Nantong market have increased significantly from blanks, finished fabrics, and home textile wholesale and retail links. This round of increases in cotton and yarn prices has been completely transmitted to the end of the industrial chain. Due to the low inventory of raw materials and finished products in the spinning process, the increase in cotton prices was quickly transmitted to the yarn. Due to pressure, the prices of gray fabrics and home textile finished products increased significantly after the Spring Festival, and the transmission efficiency was very high. The price increase of home textile gray fabrics was basically the same as The price of yarn increased at the same level, and the price of end-product products also increased significantly. ˆ
According to feedback from local traders and factory offices in Nantong, gray fabric factories with yarn stocks in the early stage can make a profit, but currently based on the price of 32S of cotton yarn and 40S of cotton yarn, there is no profit or even a loss on conventional varieties. Weaving mills After selling part of the pre-production inventory, the price was raised. Since March, yarn prices have continued to rise slowly, and weaving mills have shown dissatisfaction and concern about the strong yarn prices. The resistance is more obvious than the previous round of yarn price increases. ˆ
In addition, due to the recent strengthening of environmental protection supervision, printing and dyeing has a prominent impact on the entire downstream supply chain. On the one hand, the cost of printing and dyeing is obviously rising. On the other hand, the production efficiency of dyeing plants has declined, production capacity is limited, and the link from blank to finished product is somewhat disconnected, artificially causing tight supply. The overall feedback is that the efficiency of weaving mills has not improved significantly under multiple pressures.
Cotton yarn prices show stable trend
As of March 14, the prices of carded 21S, 32S, and 40S cards from a textile company in Shandong were 21,200 yuan/ton, 23,200 yuan/ton, and 24,500 yuan/ton respectively, which were all the same as yesterday. According to the person in charge, the recent sales of conventional yarn have been relatively smooth, with orders taking about one month. The company is currently operating at full capacity.
“The reserve cotton has been used now.” The person in charge said that the factory’s raw materials have been at a low level all along. In the past two days, the reserve cotton has been used, mainly for the production of denim yarn. Judging from the quality of the cotton reserves, it is slightly worse than expected, but it can still meet normal production.
According to textile companies in Baoding, Shijiazhuang and other places in Hebei Province, the market for polyester-cotton blended yarn has been stable recently. The price of 21S polyester-cotton yarn produced by a certain factory is 14,700 yuan/ton, and the price of 32S is 15,400 yuan/ton. The price fluctuations are not big. Recently, downstream orders have been relatively smooth, and companies generally offer discounts of around 100 yuan/ton. According to manufacturers, the market for chemical fiber materials has been stable recently, and the price of polyester staple fiber has also remained stable. As of March 14, the price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber in the Yellow River Basin was 8,750-8,850 yuan/ton. The recent market price is stable, which is good for the raw material costs of pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn.
It is understood that on March 15, the 32S general quotation of cotton yarn was 23,215 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday; the 32S high quotation of cotton yarn was 24,225 yuan/ton, which was the same as yesterday.� The price of pure polyester yarn 32S is 12,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from yesterday; the price of rayon yarn 30S is 21,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from yesterday.
Textile companies expect yarn prices to rise from April to May
Judging from the feedback from textile enterprises, cotton yarn is steadily brewing opportunities, and most of them are optimistic about the market from April to May.
The demand for cotton yarn is in peak season. After the Spring Festival this year, the overall cotton yarn market is improving. According to feedback from textile enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan and other places, after the Spring Festival, the price of conventional yarn increased by 400-500 yuan/ton, and the price of combed yarn increased by 500-700 yuan/ton, and cotton yarn orders showed obvious signs of improvement compared with last year. , after the Spring Festival, most textile enterprises maintained full capacity operation, indicating that cotton yarn is developing well.
The prices of internal and external yarns are upside down, and there is room for domestic yarns to rise. According to feedback from traders in Qingdao Port and Zhangjiagang, domestic cotton prices in India have been at a relatively high level recently, with the ex-factory price of S-6 always at 84 cents/pound. Coupled with the rise in worker wages and energy prices in Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam, India, and The quotations of CNF and CIF yarns from Pakistan and Indonesia continue to rise. From March 13th to 14th, after customs clearance of carded 21S, 32S Indian yarn, and Vietnamese yarn in China’s main port, the RMB quotation was 1,100-1,450 yuan/ton higher than that of domestic yarn, which made domestic yarn companies turn to domestic yarn.
The domestic economy is picking up. The global economy is expected to gradually pick up in 2017. Against this background, the possibility of China’s cotton textile industry continuing to pick up is increasing. In addition, starting from March 6 this year, the rotation of reserve cotton will officially begin. Judging from the transaction situation, reserve cotton will become the mainstream cotton in the market, and the price will also lead the market direction. On March 13, the average price of reserve cotton was 14,905 yuan/ton, discounted to 3128-level price of 16,012 yuan/ton. The price is in a higher range, which will support the price of cotton yarn.
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