If the trend of chemical fiber raw materials is a “big drama” in the textile market, then the rise and fall of the cotton spinning industry chain is an “intriguing book” in the textile market. In the face of multiple factors, cotton prices are changing in supply and demand, policy, financial speculation, etc. The reasons can be said to be magnificent, but facts have proved that its rise and fall cannot be accurately predicted overnight, so it is not unreasonable to say that it is “thoughtful”. Today, I will not tell the history of the cotton spinning industry chain. Let’s talk about it first. Let’s talk about two or three things that happened in the cotton spinning market after the cotton reserve round came out during the “Golden Three” month…
On March 6, the horn for the cotton reserve was sounded. When everyone was looking forward to this “life-saving straw”, the situation of increasing sales and rising prices appeared again! Early in the morning, Zheng Cotton’s main contract 1705 opened at 15,970 yuan/ton. In less than half an hour, it rose to 16,225 yuan/ton. This is a rare breakthrough for Zheng Cotton in the past half month. The resistance point of 16,000 yuan/ton, as of At noon, the 1705 contract reached a high of 16,450 yuan/ton. Affected by the rise in Zheng cotton futures, the cotton spot market also rose slightly. The price of machine-picked cotton in Beijiang was 15,800-15,900 yuan/ton. In addition, the reserves on the day The highest increase in cotton transaction price reached 2,740 yuan/ton.
No one expected this wave of market conditions, but the unwarranted surge would not last long, and would be followed by constant declines. Since March 7, cotton prices have continued to decline. After “ten consecutive declines”, Zheng As expected, the main force of cotton fell below the 15,000 yuan/ton mark again, with the lowest falling to 14,745 yuan/ton. Not only futures, but also the cotton spot market has entered a “low” state. The originally expected “Golden Three” does not seem to have arrived. The author believes that there are two main factors leading to the decline in cotton prices: First, the correction of the overall commodity market Affected, cotton passively followed the decline; secondly, the reserve cotton transaction dropped and warehouse receipts rose rapidly, further aggravating the cotton decline.
Faced with the turbulent operation of upstream raw materials, the performance of downstream cotton yarn was unexpected. During the process of rotation and storage, the price of cotton yarn did not fall along with the price of cotton. On the contrary, some varieties even increased! What is the reason why the market “does not follow the routine” again? The author’s analysis is as follows:
1. Cost is the key! If you fall, I will not fall!
As we all know, cotton prices have been a pain in the hearts of textile companies since 2015. Although the current prices have come down, for companies, the decline in cotton prices will only improve profits. After all, the previous excessively high prices made the spinning mills unbearable. Heavy burden, the current decline has only improved the original few profits. According to the person in charge of a yarn company in Shengze, in the past week, the price of reserve cotton has continued to fall, making the profits of textile companies continue to improve. At present, The source of raw materials for most companies is state-owned cotton. During the recent decline in cotton prices, cotton yarn prices have been relatively stable. As a result, most textile companies are getting rid of losses and returning to profitability.
2. There is no “Golden Three” and “Silver Four”, the peak demand season is here!
Recently, the transaction volume of many spinning mills has surged. The yarn inventory of most spinning companies has dropped below normal levels, and orders are sufficient. Some market participants said that many companies’ orders have been scheduled until May, and some companies have even placed orders. Scheduled to June, textile companies are also optimistic about the next market situation, and the order situation is showing obvious signs of improvement compared with last year. The cotton yarn market is generally improving. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan and other places, the price of conventional yarn has increased by 400-500 yuan compared with February, and the price of combed yarn has increased by 500-700 yuan. Recently, most companies have maintained full production, indicating that cotton yarn is moving towards With the development in a good direction, the overall market situation this year seems to be promising.
3. Weaving manufacturers are full of orders, and their enthusiasm for purchasing cotton yarn continues!
According to the author’s visit to the market, orders from cotton gray cloth factories this year have increased by more than half a month compared to the same period last year. Orders are currently scheduled to mid-May, and some weaving factories have orders for two months. The operating rate is also close to 100%. According to the business manager of Baichuan Weaving, the demand for pure cotton fabrics has been amplified in the market recently. For weaving companies, in this environment where raw materials are easy to rise but difficult to fall, appropriate replenishment is necessary. Yes, after all, no one knows when it will rise again, but at present, the profits of cotton gray fabrics are still very small, and it is difficult to follow the increase, so many manufacturers have started to make polyester-cotton fabrics. Due to the recent decline in the price of polyester raw materials, polyester products have profit margins become larger.
To sum up, it is still difficult for cotton yarn prices to fall in the short term. Although some textile companies have recently stated that there will be a 100-200 yuan reduction in actual purchases. However, considering that the inventory of textile companies is still low, even if the yarn price falls back, , the amplitude will not be too large� In the next two months, if the price of cotton yarn is stable, it is only a matter of time before the price of gray cloth increases. However, whether the price of cotton yarn can stabilize depends on the changes in the inventory of yarn mills after the arrival of the off-season.
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