PTA What exactly do you want from me! ?
This week, crude oil continues to crawl in the process of rebound, pushing naphtha to rise to the $450-line, and PX profits will further shrink. Today is expected to be at 805-810 levels, still sitting on a profit of about $40 US dollars, so PX supply and demand will not If you want to change it because of the current profit situation, if you really want to change it, PX will lose $100.
The equivalent processing cost of PX of US$805-810 is: 4375-4400 yuan per line. TA709 received 4818. In addition to the holding fee of about 160 yuan, that is to say, the effective processing fee of PTA9 is: 280 yuan level. That is, on average each PTA factory loses 200-300 yuan/ton. As for why this processing fee PTA factory continues to operate, firstly, it is because there was a period of time when people made more than 200 yuan/ton (last year, there were times when the processing fee went to 800-900 yuan/ton); secondly, as a business, how can It starts when you say it starts and stops when you say it stops. Who would call me the big boss if it stops? I understood these superficial yet profound truths too late.
BUT ANYWAY, with the processing cost of 280 yuan, coupled with the current PTA VS PET operating rate, it is a weak destocking. In May, Taihua 120W + Yisheng 220W + Temporary Yadong’s 75W installation was stopped. Destocking in May is also obvious. It’s not over yet. This week’s polyester production and sales can be described as the “ultimate temptation”, with continuous sales exceeding 120%-200%+. According to the data, POY inventory has dropped for about 4 days. Putting all this together, you want me to continue to follow YS and “help the tiger”? If one day he changes his attitude, he will lose and become “not a human being inside and out”. No matter what, since long PTA has reached the height of long belief, then let me persist for once, at least in the near future, continue to maintain long orders at the 4800 line. By the way, I hate YS now.
MEG takes sides
This week’s focus on MEG can be described as “traders punching down Kansai”, oh no, it’s paper speculators punching the old man of the polyester factory. Polyester factories represented by HY, such as LD, ZK, of course XFM, TK, SFX and other major polyester manufacturers are all chasing MEG for spot goods. Yes, WHY NOT, production and sales are good, cash flow is excellent, and inventory is decreasing. Profits are flying, and raw material prices are at new lows and on their way to new lows. Is there anything wrong with buying, buying, buying? However, the current major players in the MEG industry all graduated with postdoctoral degrees in economics. The macro is negative, and the trend of commodities is falling. Even the KGB was dispatched to learn that the tanks in the polyester factory are full of MEG. Sinopec forced the Liangjia factory to increase its contract and made them slaves. For me, what else can Piccolo do to increase its contract? Isn’t Piccolo potato chips? Anyway, ethylene glycol is a nuisance.
I don’t understand. How can everyone be so disgusted with a port’s 60W+ inventory? People’s cash flow is running extremely well at this stage. How come the inventory of finished products is falling again and again, so it’s necessary to hit our lovely MEG brothers? No. , I want to go long, but the organization does not allow it, then I will go long in electronic trading. When I was long, I was only 1 yuan away from the lowest price. After I finished the meeting, it was already 100 yuan higher. I remember it was a sunny day. I remember my teacher Gao Jin, the god of gambling, told me, don’t Afraid – A JIE LOO… 1707,1708 electronic trading 5600+ is my position, I know, I will not lose.
Of course, I am used to being alone and don’t need comrades.
</p
