As can be seen from the above announcement, Wanhua MDI Phase II unit (800,000 tons/year) was shut down for maintenance yesterday.
At the beginning of this month, Shanghai Caojing Lianheng’s 360,000-ton MDI also entered maintenance, and the restart date may be delayed than expected.
Chongqing BASF restarted in early April, and the current load is only 50%.
Ruian has been running at low load since it restarted after shutdown.
In terms of raw materials: Taken together, the overall operating rate of domestic MDI will be less than 50%. The so-called principle of “scarcity is more valuable” has emerged from this, and multi-factory maintenance has also affected the market to a certain extent. Supply and demand are tight. The data above shows that PTMEG has been on an upward trend, and pure MDI has recently begun to stop falling and rebound. Since yesterday, MDI prices have generally increased by 300 yuan/ton. Driven by the positive results of both raw materials, the current price of spandex remains strong even in the context of weak polyester raw materials.
Downstream demand: Downstream circular knitting machines are at around 50%, warp knitting is at 75%, lace is at 53%, and wrapped yarn is at 64%, basically showing a steady downward trend. Specific to local markets, Guangdong’s downstream circular knitting yarn wrapping market, the follow-up of terminal orders is still cautious, and the company’s start-up is close to 50%. In the warp knitting market, there is insufficient follow-up on customer orders, and the average start-up of powerful enterprises is 60-70%; the overall start-up of the downstream market in Fujian is cautious and average, with 50% start-up in lace, the orders in the warp knitting market are mediocre, and the start-up of powerful enterprises is 70%; the downstream circular knitting machine in Changshu area Market demand is stable and acceptable, and the current overall operating load is about 50%.
The author also consulted Mr. Ma of Hyosung Spandex, and he said: “Recently, the raw materials have increased again, and under the positive influence, the price increase of spandex has gradually appeared. Now the operating rate of our company’s spandex is about 60% to 70%. Overall, It’s not too high, and the downstream demand is relatively stable, so I don’t think the price of spandex will skyrocket, and it will basically remain stable.”
Manager Fang of Zhuji Huahai Spandex told the author: “Recently, the price of spandex has been relatively stable, but the shipment volume is small. Although the price of raw materials is increasing, the downstream market is very poor. I predict that prices will loosen in the future.”
Therefore, the author believes that under the premise of shortage of maintenance supply in many factories, pure MDI still has an upward trend, but with the upcoming off-season, downstream demand will gradually weaken. From this point of view, there are two factors that are good and bad. Under the influence, the future trend of spandex will be mainly stable and small movements.
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