In mid-May, with the collective “explosion” of bulk commodities, the enthusiasm for speculation in crude oil was ignited, and it continued to rise strongly. Ethylene glycol “opened up” and moved forward, rising from the daily limit to the close for many times. The PTA futures spot price rose; the polyester filament market It even took off strongly and staged a “relay race” of price increases!
Although polyester filament has the tendency to rise as soon as it rises, it will “attack” from time to time!
However, in this big market situation, textile people, whether in WeChat Moments, various textile WeChat groups, or QQ communication groups, are full of information about price increases and good market prospects. Chemical fiber salesmen have also exposed the price increase of polyester raw materials, and from time to time broadcast the shipment situation and the intention to close the market; encouraging and stimulating the rhythm of “stocking up and price increase” of downstream weaving manufacturers or traders. !
Whether it is chemical fiber traders or downstream weaving manufacturers, although they are dubious, they clearly know that this is the consistent “routine” of raw material manufacturers! However, under this positive stimulus, many people still couldn’t help but purchase; it has driven waves of hot sales in the polyester filament market. The average production and sales of polyester manufacturers have exceeded 100%, and some even reached 200%. , 250%, 300%, and around 350%.
However, OPEC production cuts turned into a “black swan” and crude oil plummeted nearly 5%! International oil prices are jumping up and down, with big ups and downs, just like throwing a huge stone into the polyester market, causing waves.
On the 26th, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol suddenly showed signs of weakening. Although at present, polyester filament manufacturers are mostly holding back and keeping a steady pace, preferential measures have already appeared in actual operations.
For the weaving bosses and traders who have just stocked up and are not yet warm, they have to say with emotion: This rise and fall is really exciting!
If you are a downstream weaving manufacturer, we might as well come and settle the account!
If we just got a batch of raw materials last week, the price discount may have dropped by nearly 500 yuan/ton in a week or two; according to cost accounting, the cost of raw materials used for gray cloth is equivalent to 0.15 yuan/meter, and the output of one machine It is about 200 meters/day. It can be calculated that the raw material loss of a machine for one day of production is 30 yuan. If your factory scale is 150 looms, it is equivalent to a loss of 4,500 yuan in raw materials per day.
If you are a trader who purely hoards goods to boost prices; if there is a slight correction of 300 yuan/ton for polyester filament in the market outlook, your losses will not be small!
If you stock up on 100 tons of raw materials, it equals a loss of 30,000 yuan;
If you stock up on 500 tons of raw materials, it equals a loss of 150,000 yuan;
If you stock up on 1,000 tons of raw materials, you have lost 300,000 yuan.
If there is really room for a decline of 500 yuan/ton or 600 yuan/ton, your loss will be doubled!
Of course, we are only short-sighted in this calculation. In the short term, crude oil may soar again in the market outlook, polyester filament and other raw materials may rise further, and stocking up will become a real profit.
However, I have to lament that it is really not easy to be optimistic about the market these days, and buying raw materials is more like buying stocks.
There are also various complaints from textile bosses. When they clearly thought that the market would further rise, the price actually fell. If it fell, they were afraid of buying the bottom halfway up the mountain, so they did not dare to take action easily. They were looking forward to a new low. Buy the dip. Sometimes, when you clearly think that there is room for the price of raw materials to fall, the price suddenly rises. At this time, you are afraid of buying at the highest peak.
Although the raw materials are not speculative products such as stocks and futures, but are actual raw materials needed by factories, the price fluctuations of polyester filament have indeed affected the hearts of a large number of textile people. Whether you are buying raw materials or hoarding raw materials, you need to listen to all directions and keep an eye on the six directions.Pay attention to the “turbulence” of all parties; take action when it is time to take action, and be sure to hold steady when it is time to calm down.
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