Recently, a report by Qatar News Agency triggered a political tremor in the Middle East. The news reported that Qatari Head of State Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani said in a speech at a military ceremony that Iran is an “Islamic power that cannot be ignored” and that “it is unwise to be hostile to Iran.” Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and the Maldives immediately accused Qatar of interfering in other countries’ internal affairs, funding terrorism, and supporting Iran, and announced that they were severing diplomatic relations with Qatar.
Regarding the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, most institutions and analysts believe that its impact on oil prices is expected to be very short-lived, and it is expected that it may only occur if the move prevents OPEC from uniting, resulting in an increase in production from the agreed level. have a medium to long-term impact on oil prices.
However, market changes are so unpredictable. Look at the reaction of the crude oil and polyester raw material markets today, and you will know how wonderful the world is!
International oil prices: After blocking Qatar, it has been a “roller coaster” with twists and turns
As soon as the news came out, Brent crude oil rose by more than 1.5% to US$50.72 per barrel. WTI crude oil rose nearly 1.6% to US$48.40 per barrel. Then the market continued to decline. On Monday, U.S. WTI crude oil unexpectedly closed down 0.5%, falling to the lowest settlement level since May 10. As of 15:00 Beijing time on the 6th, crude oil has regained some of its lost ground, and WTI has rebounded to 47.51. It can be described as a series of twists and turns.
PTA: Adou who couldn’t help turned over too much!
Since the Dragon Boat Festival last week, the commodity futures market has started a synchronous decline mode. However, this Tuesday, the trend of polyester raw material PTA has clearly differentiated. The main force of PTA has exceeded the stage high of 5,000 yuan/ton since May 23. Later, it was caught off guard and turned downward again, shrinking 5.64% in seven trading days. The main contract fell to 4,714 yuan/ton, setting a new low record in 2017. But at the time of the political turmoil in the Middle East, this helpless Adou actually suffered a lot. Today, PTA futures changed direction and staged a strong rise in the afternoon. The main contract once rose 1.55% to 4834 points. As of the close, PTA exceeded 4800 points, an increase of 0.97%.
Ethylene glycol rally: It comes and goes in a hurry!
On the afternoon of the 6th, it was the critical moment for PTA to rise. The coordination between the ethylene glycol electronic trading and the rise of PTA was perfect! However, the rally faltered after two points, reaching a maximum of 6,406 yuan/ton, and now it has fallen back to 6,260-6,280 yuan/ton. This is not a dive, this is a “roller coaster”.
Some people may come up with other reasons to prove that today’s market situation is not affected by the crisis in the Middle East, but looking at flowers in the fog and the moon in the water, the market situation in the next second will change so quickly! But the market is coming, so who cares? Today, it seems that polyester factories are also getting ready to move. I heard that a major polyester factory has stopped selling and is waiting for a price increase. In the afternoon, Xinmin, Tiansheng, Hengyi, Tongkun, etc. made up for the increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. Can the polyester market borrow? On this gust, remains to be seen. Next, let’s be more realistic and take a look at the current fundamentals of polyester raw materials.
Profit status of polyester raw materials
The recent drop in PX prices has caused PX profits to once again enter a small loss pattern. Last week, PX losses averaged 12 US dollars/ton; while PTA is still in a large loss situation, with losses narrowing slightly to 254 yuan/ton last week; ethylene glycol’s current profits are relatively Feng Ying, the external profit is 268 US dollars / ton. In terms of polyester yarn, the cost surface has loosened and the profit margin of polyester filament has expanded. The current profit level of FDY products is at 643 yuan/ton, and the profit level of POY products has rebounded to around 449 yuan/ton.
Polyester raw material production, sales and operating rate
Last week, the average operating rate of PTA was 65.9%, down 3.1% from the previous week; the real-time operating rate was 64.6%. If the long-term shutdown of production capacity is removed, the current real-time operating rate is 85.2%. The load of the polyester device does not change much, with the average weekly load at 83.9%. In terms of weaving, there has been little change in the recent start-up of the weaving market, which currently remains at around 80%.
In terms of production and sales, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, terminal downstream demand declined, and the overall market production and sales were light. After returning from the holiday, the raw material market is weak, which has a certain negative impact on the downstream mentality. The overall market is cautious in stocking, and production and sales remain at around 80-90%.
Inventory, Last week, the polyester market was affected by holiday factors, and downstream purchases were limited. Sluggish demand has caused polyester manufacturers to accumulate inventory slightly. In terms of specific products, the current overall polyester market inventory has slightly increased to around 11-28 days; POY inventory has been slightly increased to 7-13 days, FDY inventory has been concentrated around 11-19 days, and DTY inventory has been around 20-30 days About days.
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