The caprolactam market has been declining for 2 and a half months, but it has finally risen steadily under the protection of the low operating rate of the caprolactam industry and the unremitting efforts of caprolactam factories to push up prices. Although the caprolactam market will maintain low operating rates in the near future, the traditional off-season from June to August for terminal textiles and apparel has arrived, so the caprolactam market can only rise and cherish it.
The continued rise in the caprolactam market last year was inseparable from the major benefit of tight market supply. At present, the caprolactam factory equipment will undergo intensive maintenance in June. The industry operating rate is expected to remain around 60%, and the market supply may remain tight.
Table 1 List of recently shut down domestic caprolactam devices
In mid-to-late May, the caprolactam market bottomed out, chip manufacturers became more enthusiastic about receiving goods, and downstream customers also increased their stockings. The chip market bottomed out and rebounded. However, due to insufficient follow-up on demand from the end textile market, the rebound in the chip market was relatively limited. At present, nylon polymerization enterprises have started operations at 73%, which is similar to the same level last year. Operations have slightly increased month-on-month. Slicing factories are more enthusiastic about purchasing goods at the bottom. The trading atmosphere in the caprolactam market is acceptable. It is expected that the caprolactam market demand will be relatively stable in June.
Crude oil and pure benzene fell simultaneously, which greatly restricted the rebound of the pure benzene market. Coupled with the lack of clear direction guidance in the domestic trade market in the short term, the price persistence of pure benzene companies and rising inventory levels and other influencing factors, in the short term, the range of buying and selling intentions is relatively large, and the pure benzene market may maintain a consolidation trend, waiting for downstream procurement to increase. Overall, cost has little impact on the caprolactam market trend. From the perspective of caprolactam’s profit and loss situation, the current market price will steadily rise to more than 13,000 yuan/ton. The caprolactam factory has turned a profit, but due to the arrival of the traditional off-season in the terminal textile market Due to the impact of the epidemic, caprolactam factories have insufficient motivation to increase load in the short term, and the market outlook may be slightly cautious.
Figure 1 Caprolactam market price and profit trend chart from 2016 to 2017
In June, caprolactam factory maintenance was relatively concentrated. In the short term, the factory actively pushed up prices, prompting downstream slicing and spinning factories to stock up on appropriate amounts. The market transaction focus may be more on the strong side. However, from the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the resistance in the middle and back end of the industrial chain is greater, because the traditional off-season of the textile market has arrived. In addition to some rising demand from terminals, the operating rate of weaving enterprises and the actual demand in the terminal textile market may be slowly declining, and the trend of the downstream nylon market may be Relatively average. Overall, with the restart of several caprolactam units that were shut down in the middle of this month, the tight market supply situation may gradually ease. By then, the resistance to the continued rise of the caprolactam market may increase, and the market outlook will really rise and be cherished.
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