Dragred by the plunge in international crude oil, PTA futures fell sharply again on November 26. As of the close at 15:00 that day, the main 1901 contract of PTA futures closed at 5946 points, down 148 points or 2.43% from the previous trading day.
After working hard for more than half a year, and after several months of sharp rise and fall, PTA finally returned to its original state look like”. It has arrived at the end of November, and the textile market seems to have recovered slightly compared with September and October, and raw material prices have returned to normal levels. Everything seems to have returned to normal.
But for textile workers, these few months have been really difficult.
For textile people, due to the transformation of water-jet looms, the production capacity of conventional products has shrunk significantly. The first half of this year has turned into a rare crazy market where “everything is easy to sell” . Especially after a large number of low-end water-jet looms were eliminated, conventional products suddenly became in short supply, and good times were coming. During the interview in the first half of the year, the author once interviewed a boss who produces nylon woven fabrics. He said that after so many years of technological upgrading, the profit of each loom is only 120-130 yuan per day, but those with low technical content High-end water-jet looms produce ordinary pongee and polyester taffeta. The profit of each loom is eighty or ninety yuan per day, and they can sell whatever they produce, so they don’t have to worry about sales at all. He feels like this The market is going crazy.
Beginning in May, the number of orders on the market gradually began to decrease. However, because the early business was so good, basically all companies were operating at full capacity, and peripheral looms were also accelerated. , thinking that the sooner we produce cloth, the sooner we can make money. As a result, in July, the raw materials suddenly went crazy. PTA rose from 5,600 points to more than 9,000 points, and the price of polyester filament also increased by more than 3,000 yuan. Companies that made money in the first half of the year are thinking about making money in the second half of the year, and companies that have not made money are thinking about making money in the second half of the year. In short, the more polyester filament prices go up, the more polyester filaments they buy, and the more polyester filaments they buy, the more they buy. rise.
Everyone knows what happened next, because costs remain high and the market declined in the first half of the year It has been overdrawn, and “gold, nine, silver, ten” has become a joke. After September, the price of raw materials dropped day by day, and the price of cloth woven with high-priced raw materials could only drop accordingly, eventually turning into a big “bear market” in the textile market.
For the polyester industry chain, the situation is slightly better.
In July, when raw materials just started to rise, PTA manufacturers made a lot of money. Although the profits of polyester manufacturers dropped slightly compared with the previous period, due to good production and sales conditions, The entire polyester industry chain appears to be thriving.
But in September, when PTA began to fall, everything was different. Prices, production and sales, profits, and operating rates fell again and again. After November, as international crude oil prices plunged sharply, and the entire polyester industry chain fell out of control. Even if PTA stepped up maintenance and polyester factories stopped production significantly, they could not stop the decline. In the end, they could only fall into falling prices, sluggish production and sales, and inventory A vicious cycle of rising prices.
It’s not too late to make up for it
This round of raw materials The sudden rise and fall has caused huge damage to the entire textile market and the polyester industry chain. So what measures has the market taken to prevent such a sudden rise and fall from happening again?
This round of significant fluctuations in raw materials has exposed a huge problem in my country’s polyester industry chain, which is insufficient PX production capacity.
Insufficient production capacity of PX will lead to a forward shift of profits in the polyester industry chain: The imbalance between the development of my country’s PX production capacity and the development of the polyester industry chain has led to my country’s PX dependence on foreign countries as high as 54% . In July, it was when the price of PX first began to rise sharply that PTA and polyester filament were led all the way up like dominoes.
In order to change this status quo, in the context of large-scale private refining, domestic PX production capacity will increase significantly in the future.
According to current plans, my country will add approximately 21.6 million tons of PX production capacity per year before 2020, and resume production of 1.6 million tons of PX production capacity, totaling approximately 23.2 million tons. There are 2.6 million tons of domestic products that are more certain to be put into production in 2018, and 9.4 million tons are more certain to be put into production in 2019. According to estimates, after the explosion of PX production capacity in 19-20, my country’s PX self-sufficiency rate is expected to reach more than 100%.
I believe that as the production capacity of PX becomes higher and higher, such huge fluctuations in polyester on the market will become less and less.
Another aspect is about PTA futures. In order to reduce the risks of polyester manufacturers and reduce the large fluctuations of PTA due to human factors, PTA was introduced into the futures market. However, in the round of surge after July, the PTA futures market�Although it plays a certain role in resisting risks, on the other hand, due to the influence of the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, a large amount of social funds have entered the PTA futures market, adding fuel to the fire of the PTA market that was already starting to get out of control.
In order to alleviate this situation, Zhengzhou Commercial Bank’s plan is to introduce overseas traders. Although this move will cause some fluctuations in the PTA futures market in the short term, in the long run Look, as the market gets bigger, your ability to resist risks will naturally increase.
After working hard for more than half a year,
I returned to before liberation.
I hope this kind of thing will never happen again in the future.
Raw materials fluctuate,
It is the downstream that ultimately pays the bill! </p
