After the holiday, domestic energy and chemical futures were supported by costs and had a strong willingness to make up for the increase. Chemical futures were all red during the day, with polyester chain leading the increase. PTA rose by more than 5%, staple fiber rose by more than 3%, and ethylene glycol rose less. The price was 5533 yuan.
During the Spring Festival holiday, European and American crude oil continued to rise as a whole. U.S. oil and Brent oil both stood firm at the $90 mark and continued to hit new highs in more than seven years. The continued global geopolitical tensions and the overall tight crude oil supply supported the oil market. The current situation in Eastern Europe shows no signs of easing, while the Iranian nuclear talks are still at a deadlock, and the global geopolitical situation continues to be tense. In addition, as the recovery of OPEC production is less than expected, and the U.S. shale oil maintains low prosperity, the supply side of crude oil continues to be tight. Driven by the rise in oil prices, some petrochemical products have also risen to varying degrees. For example, naphtha (CFR Japan) has increased by 4%, isomer grade MX (FOB South Korea) has increased by 7%, and PX (CFR Taiwan) has increased by 5%.
After the holidays, the polyester chain is supported by costs and has a strong willingness to make up for the increase. From the perspective of PTA, production companies did not do much maintenance during the holidays. With the new equipment put into operation, PTA supply remained high, but the polyester load was higher than the same period. With the resumption of work and production after the holiday, the polyester load is expected to quickly reach 9 to a level above. Coupled with the strong prices of crude oil and PX, the level of PTA processing fees is not high, making PTA cost support strong. Pay attention to the accumulation rate of factory inventory after the holiday and the production and sales of polyester products. Since the terminal factory has not yet resumed work, we will continue to follow up on subsequent orders and changes in construction starts.
As Zhejiang Petrochemical, Fude Energy, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Henan Energy Yongcheng Phase II restarted one after another, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate recovered rapidly, while at the same time the polyester load remained high, and the level of imported goods was not high, and port inventory There has been no sustained accumulation, and the short-term contradiction between supply and demand for ethylene glycol has not intensified yet. During the Spring Festival, ethylene glycol port inventory accumulates seasonally, but polyester factories and futures dealers still have spring replenishment needs, and attention is paid to the subsequent port inventory depletion speed.
There is not much maintenance of short fiber equipment before and after the Spring Festival. However, after the early production restrictions, the operating rate of some leading companies continues to be under full, and the inventory of short fiber companies also remains at a low level. Some leading companies are even still oversold by 20-30 days. Inventory pressure is generally low. From a downstream point of view, the time when the spinning mills stopped and resumed work was not much different from previous years, and because some of the orders from the spinning mills had been received in mid-to-early February, and the processing difference level continued to be good. The editor believes that under the background that the stocking of raw materials before the holiday is not very abundant, the post-holiday demand is not suitable for short selling; coupled with the strong support from the cost side, the post-holiday market can still be expected.
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